Estimation for partially observed Markov processes     

M. E. Thompson  T. N. Kaseke 《Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics》1995,9(1):33-47

Many stochastic process models for environmental data sets assume a process of relatively simple structure which is in some sense partially observed. That is, there is an underlying process (X_n, n 0) or (X_t, t 0) for which the parameters are of interest and physically meaningful, and an observable process (Y_n, n 0) or (Y_t, t 0) which depends on the X process but not otherwise on those parameters. Examples are wide ranging: the Y process may be the X process with missing observations; the Y process may be the X process observed with a noise component; the X process might constitute a random environment for the Y process, as with hidden Markov models; the Y process might be a lower dimensional function or reduction of the X process. In principle, maximum likelihood estimation for the X process parameters can be carried out by some form of the EM algorithm applied to the Y process data. In the paper we review some current methods for exact and approximate maximum likelihood estimation. We illustrate some of the issues by considering how to estimate the parameters of a stochastic Nash cascade model for runoff. In the case of k reservoirs, the outputs of these reservoirs form a k dimensional vector Markov process, of which only the kth coordinate process is observed, usually at a discrete sample of time points.  相似文献   

Trace gas exchange at the air/water interface: Measurements of mass accommodation coefficients     

W. Kirchner  F. Welter  A. Bongartz  J. Kames  S. Schweighoefer  U. Schurath 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1990,10(4):427-449

A liquid jet of 90 m diameter and variable length has been utilized to determine absorption rates and, hence, mass accommodation coefficients , of atmospheric trace gases. The compounds investigated are HCl (0.01), HNO₃ (0.01), N₂O₅ (0.005), peroxyacetyl nitrate (>0.001), and HONO (0.005). It is concluded that the absorption of these trace gases by liquid atmospheric water is not significantly retarded by interfacial mass transport. The strengths and limitations of the liquid jet technique for measuring mass accommodation coefficients are explored.  相似文献   

黄河入海口径流量和输沙量对黄河三角洲生态环境的影响   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

袁祖贵  楚泽涵  杨玉珍 《古地理学报》2006,8(1):125-130

20世纪后期黄河入海口的径流量减少和多次断流。这对流域下游地区的经济发展、尤其是农业产生明显影响。特别应注意的是，与径流量减少的同时，输沙量也明显减少，致使20世纪90年代以来入海口造陆面积锐减，在1996年和1997年甚至造陆停滞、出现海侵。黄河入海口的径流量、输沙量减少可能引发的一系列生态环境问题中，造陆面积的减少和海水的侵入可能关系到黄河三角洲的经济发展前途，近期则危及胜利油田的安全，应引起有关部门的关注。文中还探讨了用地球物理测井方法检测生态环境的变化。  相似文献   

Spectral Simulation and Conditioning to Local Continuity Trends in Geologic Modeling     

Tingting Yao  Craig Calvert  Tom Jones  Glen Bishop  Yuan Ma  Lincoln Foreman 《Mathematical Geology》2006,38(1):51-62

Spectral simulation has gained application in building geologic models due to the advantage of better honoring the spatial continuity of petrophysical properties, such as reservoir porosity and shale volume. Distinct from sequential simulation methods, spectral simulation is a global algorithm in the sense that a global density spectrum is calculated once and the inverse Fourier transform is performed on the Fourier coefficient also only once to generate a simulation realization. The generated realizations honor the spatial continuity structure globally over the whole field instead of only within a search neighborhood, as with sequential simulation algorithms. However, the disadvantage of global spectral simulation is that it traditionally cannot account for the local information such as the local continuity trends, which are often observed in reservoirs and hence are important to be accounted for in geologic models. This disadvantage has limited wider application of spectral simulation in building geologic models. In this paper, we present ways of conditioning geologic models to the relevant local information. To account for the local continuity trends, we first scale different frequency components of the original model with local-amplitude spectrum ratios that are specific to the local trend. The sum of these scaled frequency components renders a new model that displays the desired local continuity trend. The implementation details of this new method are discussed and examples are provided to illustrate the algorithm.  相似文献   

Mathematica软件在计算有限单元法系数矩阵中的应用     

欧东新  王家林 《上海国土资源》2005,(3):55-57

以一维分层连续介质大地电磁有限元模拟为例，应用Mathematica软件计算系数矩阵。节约了大量的推导时间。确保快速、准确地得到有限元系数矩阵。展示了mathematica软件在计算有限单元系数矩阵中的强大功能。  相似文献   

利用修正太沙基理论进行土体非线性固结沉降计算研究     

陈琦慧  孙树林 《上海国土资源》2005,(4):41-44

提出在基于小变形弹性假定的太沙基一维固结方程解答中采用非线性条件下定义的固结系数，并且进行了计算验证，结果证明在小变形弹性固结方程的解答中采用非线性条件下定义的固结系数可以使计算结果更好地接近实际沉降值。相对于传统太沙基理论，修正后的太沙基固结理论可以用来更准确地计算实际工程中的非线性固结沉降。  相似文献   

基于小波消噪和符号动力学的径流变化复杂性研究   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

王文圣  黄伟军  丁晶 《水科学进展》2005,16(3):380-383

提出了基于小波消噪的符号动力学途径研究径流变化的复杂度。对径流序列进行小波消噪,运用Lempel-Ziv算法计算其复杂度,以长江、黄河流域为例定量分析年径流复杂性。为研究水文系统的复杂性提供了工具。研究表明:①黄河流域径流变化比长江流域复杂;②黄河流域年径流的平均复杂度为8.3,从上游到下游的复杂性变化趋势不明显;③从时间纵向看,黄河年径流变化的复杂性并未发生显著的变化。  相似文献